Missouri's 2nd Congressional District
89%
GOP
11%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +12.4·80% of simulations: R +25.6 to D +0.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +10.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +6.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.8
Forecasted margin
R +12.4
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM3 Research | May 31, 2026 | R +3 | 600 | lv |
| FM3 Research | May 31, 2026 | R +4 | 600 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 11%
R 89%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+12).
- Candidates
- Frederick Wellman (D) Ann Wagner (R) (inc.)