Path to 218

Toggle the storylines below and watch the House majority odds shift. Democrats 70%, Republicans 30%.

70% Dem majority baseline
30% GOP majority baseline
230 avg D seats
70%
P(D ≥ 218)
~230 D seats
Baseline scenario

Democrats are the favorite (70% majority odds, ~230 D seats on average).

Empire State of Mind

The Long Island, Hudson Valley, and North Jersey seats that decide who runs the House.

3 races
NY-0172% RLikely R
NY-1777% DLikely D
NJ-0769% DLean D
Baseline · D-majority 64% · R-majority 36%

Groundhog Day

Pennsylvania's four familiar battleground seats, from Bucks County to Harrisburg.

4 races
PA-0155% RTilt R
PA-0758% DTilt D
PA-0856% RTilt R
PA-1051% DTossup
Baseline · D-majority 39% · R-majority 40% · split 21%

Best Coast

The seats cable news pundits are talking about when they say "Check the California battlegrounds."

3 races
CA-2253% DTossup
CA-4584% DLikely D
CA-4880% DLikely D
Baseline · D-majority 78% · R-majority 22%

Borderlands

Latino-heavy districts where the 2024 rightward shift still shapes how both parties talk about the House.

4 races
CA-1377% DLikely D
NM-0278% DLikely D
TX-2871% DLikely D
TX-3453% DTossup
Baseline · D-majority 65% · R-majority 16% · split 20%

Little Boxes

Rapid-growth metro and outer-suburban seats from Phoenix to Las Vegas, Omaha, Colorado, and Virginia where the suburban mood is the story.

5 races
AZ-0665% DLean D
CO-0861% DLean D
NV-0185% DLikely D
NV-0376% DLikely D
VA-0263% DLean D
Baseline · D-majority 76% · R-majority 24%

Born in the U.S.A.

Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio seats where small shifts among working-class, small-city, and union-adjacent voters can flip multiple races.

6 races
IA-0153% DTossup
IA-0357% DTilt D
MI-0762% DLean D
MI-0881% DLikely D
OH-0176% DLikely D
OH-0952% DTossup
Baseline · D-majority 60% · R-majority 25% · split 15%

"All Politics is Local"

Personal-brand or institutionally unusual seats where an incumbent, election rules, or recent seat history defies the district's partisan lean.

4 races
AK-0176% RLikely R
IN-0183% DLikely D
NC-0162% RLean R
WA-0374% DLikely D
Baseline · D-majority 39% · R-majority 26% · split 35%

Decision to Leave

Seats where the result is now far more uncertain because the incumbent is not running again.

8 races
AZ-0173% DLikely D
IA-0264% RLean R
ME-0265% RLean R
MI-1055% DTossup
MT-0168% RLean R
NE-0282% DLikely D
NH-0182% DLikely D
TX-3570% RLikely R
Baseline · D-majority 45% · R-majority 36% · split 19%

"Goes Blue" means these areas meaningfully shifted toward Democrats. "Goes Red", Republican. Baseline removes the filter. The probability up top is based on your selections.