A confidently uncertain forecast that called 508 of 525 races.

The final 2024 model was frozen on election day and scored against what actually happened. Across 525 calls, we missed 17: 3 presidential states, 1 Senate seat, and 13 House races.

17 misses, colored by winner 508 correct calls

The big calls

Presidential The miss, right up front Made Harris the slight favorite at 55% Trump won, 312 to 226 · missed Senate Few surprises Had GOP control at 71%, called all but one 53 R, 47 D · called House Republicans won the coin flip The House was literally 50/50 220 R, 215 D · coin flip

That's how we did last time. The model's a lot better now.