2024 House Forecast
50%
Solid D 180
Likely D 17
Lean D 10
Tilt D 15
Tossup 0
Tilt R 12
Lean R 5
Likely R 8
Solid R 188
222 Dem-favored · 0 Tossup · 213 GOP-favored
Tap a state to explore
Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Where the House Breaks
OH-13
58%
PA-10
58%
NY-03
58%
CA-27
57%
CA-22
55%
IA-01
55%
AK-AL
55%
CA-47
54%
NY-17
53%
MI-07
52%
← Dem Flips | GOP Holds →
NY-19
52%
CA-41
54%
AZ-01
54%
IA-03
54%
VA-02
55%
AZ-06
58%
WA-03
58%
CA-45
58%
MI-10
58%
NJ-07
58%
Control Odds Over Time
Democratic and Republican chances of controlling the House, through Nov 4, 2024
Dem 50%
GOP 50%
Popular Vote Aggregate
District-level forecast aggregate of the national two-party House vote by party.
Dem 50.7%
GOP 49.3%
Competitive Races
42 of 42
| Race | Forecast | Win % | Actual | Error | Directional | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI-07 Curtis Hertel vs Tom Barrett | D +0.4 Tilt D | 52%48% | R +3.7 GOP won | 4.1 | D +4.1 | ✗ |
NY-19 Josh Riley vs Marcus J. Molinaro | R +0.5 Tilt R | 48%52% | D +2.2 Dem won | 2.7 | R +2.7 | ✗ |
NY-17 Mondaire L. Jones vs Michael Lawler | D +0.7 Tilt D | 53%47% | R +4.3 GOP won | 5.0 | D +5.0 | ✗ |
CA-47 Dave Min vs Scott Baugh | D +0.8 Tilt D | 54%46% | D +2.9 Dem won | 2.1 | R +2.1 | ✓ |
CA-41 Will Rollins vs Ken Calvert | R +0.8 Tilt R | 46%54% | R +3.4 GOP won | 2.6 | D +2.6 | ✓ |
AZ-01 Amish Shah vs David Schweikert | R +1.0 Tilt R | 46%54% | R +3.8 GOP won | 2.8 | D +2.8 | ✓ |
IA-03 Lanon Baccam vs Zachary Nunn | R +1.0 Tilt R | 46%54% | R +3.8 GOP won | 2.8 | D +2.8 | ✓ |
VA-02 Missy Cotter Smasal vs Jennifer A. Kiggans | R +1.1 Tilt R | 45%55% | R +3.8 GOP won | 2.7 | D +2.7 | ✓ |
CA-22 Rudy Salas vs David G. Valadao | D +1.1 Tilt D | 55%45% | R +6.8 GOP won | 7.9 | D +7.9 | ✗ |
IA-01 Christina Bohannan vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks | D +1.2 Tilt D | 55%45% | R +0.2 GOP won | 1.4 | D +1.4 | ✗ |
AK-AL Mary Sattler Peltola vs Nick Begich | D +1.3 Tilt D | 55%45% | R +2.4 GOP won | 3.7 | D +3.7 | ✗ |
CA-27 George Whitesides vs Mike Garcia | D +1.5 Tilt D | 57%43% | D +2.7 Dem won | 1.2 | R +1.2 | ✓ |
NY-03 Thomas R. Suozzi vs Michael J. Lipetri, Jr. | D +1.7 Tilt D | 58%42% | D +3.6 Dem won | 1.9 | R +1.9 | ✓ |
CA-45 Derek Tran vs Michelle Steel | R +1.7 Tilt R | 42%58% | D +0.2 Dem won | 1.9 | R +1.9 | ✗ |
WA-03 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez vs Joe Kent | R +1.7 Tilt R | 42%58% | D +3.9 Dem won | 5.6 | R +5.6 | ✗ |
AZ-06 Kirsten Engel vs Juan Ciscomani | R +1.7 Tilt R | 42%58% | R +2.5 GOP won | 0.8 | D +0.8 | ✓ |
PA-10 Janelle Stelson vs Scott Perry | D +1.7 Tilt D | 58%42% | R +1.3 GOP won | 3.0 | D +3.0 | ✗ |
MI-10 Carl J. Marlinga vs John James | R +1.8 Tilt R | 42%58% | R +6.1 GOP won | 4.3 | D +4.3 | ✓ |
OH-13 Emilia Strong Sykes vs Kevin Coughlin | D +1.8 Tilt D | 58%42% | D +2.2 Dem won | 0.4 | R +0.4 | ✓ |
NJ-07 Sue Altman vs Thomas H. Kean, Jr. | R +1.8 Tilt R | 42%58% | R +5.4 GOP won | 3.6 | D +3.6 | ✓ |
CA-13 Adam Gray vs John S. Duarte | D +1.9 Tilt D | 59%41% | D +0.1 Dem won | 1.8 | D +1.8 | ✓ |
MI-08 Kristen Mcdonald Rivet vs Paul Junge | D +2.3 Tilt D | 60%40% | D +6.6 Dem won | 4.3 | R +4.3 | ✓ |
WI-03 Rebecca Cooke vs Derrick Van Orden | R +2.4 Tilt R | 40%60% | R +2.7 GOP won | 0.3 | D +0.3 | ✓ |
CA-09 Josh Harder vs Kevin Lincoln | D +2.4 Tilt D | 61%39% | D +3.6 Dem won | 1.2 | R +1.2 | ✓ |
NY-01 John P. Avlon vs Nick Lalota | R +3.2 Lean R | 35%65% | R +10.4 GOP won | 7.2 | D +7.2 | ✓ |
NE-02 Tony Vargas vs Don Bacon | D +3.2 Tilt D | 64%36% | R +1.9 GOP won | 5.1 | D +5.1 | ✗ |
PA-07 Susan Wild vs Ryan E. Mackenzie | D +3.2 Lean D | 65%35% | R +1.0 GOP won | 4.2 | D +4.2 | ✗ |
CO-08 Yadira Caraveo vs Gabe Evans | D +3.2 Tilt D | 63%37% | R +0.7 GOP won | 3.9 | D +3.9 | ✗ |
FL-13 Whitney Fox vs Anna Paulina Luna | R +3.2 Tilt R | 36%64% | R +9.6 GOP won | 6.4 | D +6.4 | ✓ |
NC-01 Donald G. Davis vs Laurie Buckhout | D +3.5 Lean D | 67%33% | D +1.7 Dem won | 1.8 | D +1.8 | ✓ |
CA-03 Jessica Morse vs Kevin Kiley | R +3.8 Lean R | 33%67% | R +10.9 GOP won | 7.1 | D +7.1 | ✓ |
OR-05 Janelle S. Bynum vs Lori Chavez-Deremer | D +3.9 Lean D | 68%32% | D +2.7 Dem won | 1.2 | D +1.2 | ✓ |
PA-17 Christopher R. Deluzio vs Rob Mercuri | D +4.1 Lean D | 68%32% | D +7.8 Dem won | 3.7 | R +3.7 | ✓ |
MD-06 April Mcclain Delaney vs Neil C. Parrott | D +4.3 Lean D | 72%28% | D +6.3 Dem won | 2.0 | R +2.0 | ✓ |
MT-01 Monica Tranel vs Ryan K. Zinke | R +4.7 Lean R | 28%72% | R +7.7 GOP won | 3.0 | D +3.0 | ✓ |
VA-07 Eugene S. Vindman vs Derrick M. Anderson | D +4.8 Lean D | 73%27% | D +2.6 Dem won | 2.2 | D +2.2 | ✓ |
CO-03 Adam Frisch vs Jeff Hurd | R +5.3 Lean R | 29%71% | R +5.0 GOP won | 0.3 | R +0.3 | ✓ |
PA-08 Matt Cartwright vs Rob Bresnahan, Jr. | D +5.4 Lean D | 74%26% | R +1.6 GOP won | 7.0 | D +7.0 | ✗ |
WA-08 Kim Schrier vs Carmen Goers | D +5.4 Lean D | 72%28% | D +8.2 Dem won | 2.8 | R +2.8 | ✓ |
ME-02 Jared F. Golden vs Austin Theriault | D +5.5 Lean D | 71%29% | D +0.7 Dem won | 4.8 | D +4.8 | ✓ |
NM-02 Gabe Vasquez vs Yvette Herrell | D +5.8 Lean D | 73%27% | D +4.2 Dem won | 1.6 | D +1.6 | ✓ |
IA-02 Sarah Corkery vs Ashley Hinson | R +5.9 Lean R | 26%74% | R +15.6 GOP won | 9.7 | D +9.7 | ✓ |
All Races
435 of 435
| Race | Forecast | Win % | Actual | Error | Directional | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AK-AL Mary Sattler Peltola vs Nick Begich | D +1.3 Tilt D | 55%45% | R +2.4 GOP won | 3.7 | D +3.7 | ✗ |
AL-01 Tom Holmes vs Barry Moore | R +53.1 Solid R | 0%100% | R +56.9 GOP won | 3.8 | D +3.8 | ✓ |
AL-02 Shomari Figures vs Caroleene Dobson | D +7.4 Solid D | 85%15% | D +9.2 Dem won | 1.8 | R +1.8 | ✓ |
AL-06 Elizabeth Anderson vs Gary J. Palmer | R +36.7 Solid R | 0%100% | R +40.7 GOP won | 4.0 | D +4.0 | ✓ |
AL-07 Terri A. Sewell vs Robin Litaker | D +29.7 Solid D | 100%0% | D +27.4 Dem won | 2.3 | D +2.3 | ✓ |
AR-01 Rodney Govens vs Eric A. \"Rick\" Crawford | R +48.4 Solid R | 0%100% | R +48.9 GOP won | 0.5 | D +0.5 | ✓ |
AR-02 Marcus A. Jones vs J. French Hill | R +20.6 Solid R | 1%99% | R +17.9 GOP won | 2.7 | R +2.7 | ✓ |
AR-03 Caitlin Draper vs Steve Womack | R +27.6 Solid R | 0%100% | R +32.0 GOP won | 4.4 | D +4.4 | ✓ |
AR-04 Risie Howard vs Bruce Westerman | R +42.9 Solid R | 0%100% | R +45.8 GOP won | 2.9 | D +3.0 | ✓ |
AZ-01 Amish Shah vs David Schweikert | R +1.0 Tilt R | 46%54% | R +3.8 GOP won | 2.8 | D +2.8 | ✓ |
AZ-02 Jonathan Nez vs Elijah Crane | R +7.4 Likely R | 21%79% | R +9.0 GOP won | 1.6 | D +1.6 | ✓ |
AZ-03 Yassamin Ansari vs Jeff Zink | D +50.0 Solid D | 100%0% | D +44.4 Dem won | 5.6 | D +5.7 | ✓ |
AZ-04 Greg Stanton vs Kelly Cooper | D +11.8 Solid D | 90%10% | D +7.3 Dem won | 4.5 | D +4.5 | ✓ |
AZ-05 Katrina Schaffner vs Andy Biggs | R +17.7 Solid R | 3%97% | R +20.8 GOP won | 3.1 | D +3.1 | ✓ |
AZ-06 Kirsten Engel vs Juan Ciscomani | R +1.7 Tilt R | 42%58% | R +2.5 GOP won | 0.8 | D +0.8 | ✓ |
AZ-07 Raúl M. Grijalva vs Daniel Francis Butierez, Sr. | D +29.3 Solid D | 100%0% | D +26.9 Dem won | 2.4 | D +2.4 | ✓ |
AZ-08 Gregory Whitten vs Abraham \"Abe\" Hamadeh | R +10.0 Solid R | 14%86% | R +13.0 GOP won | 3.0 | D +3.0 | ✓ |
AZ-09 Quacy Smith vs Paul A. Gosar | R +25.8 Solid R | 0%100% | R +30.6 GOP won | 4.8 | D +4.8 | ✓ |
CA-01 Rose Penelope Yee vs Doug Lamalfa | R +21.2 Solid R | 1%99% | R +30.7 GOP won | 9.5 | D +9.5 | ✓ |
CA-02 Jared Huffman vs Chris Coulombe | D +49.5 Solid D | 100%0% | D +43.8 Dem won | 5.7 | D +5.7 | ✓ |
CA-03 Jessica Morse vs Kevin Kiley | R +3.8 Lean R | 33%67% | R +10.9 GOP won | 7.1 | D +7.1 | ✓ |
CA-04 Mike Thompson vs John Munn | D +35.1 Solid D | 100%0% | D +32.9 Dem won | 2.2 | D +2.2 | ✓ |
CA-05 Michael J. \"Mike\" Barkley vs Tom Mcclintock | R +16.0 Solid R | 3%97% | R +23.5 GOP won | 7.5 | D +7.5 | ✓ |
CA-06 Ami Bera vs Christine Bish | D +13.8 Solid D | 95%5% | D +15.2 Dem won | 1.4 | R +1.4 | ✓ |
CA-07 Doris O. Matsui vs Tom Silva | D +32.8 Solid D | 100%0% | D +33.5 Dem won | 0.7 | R +0.7 | ✓ |
1–25 of 435
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