74%
26%GOP
Tap a state to explore
Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Where the House Breaks
Control by National Environment
Odds each party controls the House under a given projected national environment.
As the projected national environment becomes more Democratic, Democratic control becomes more likely and Republican control becomes less likely. The lines show House control odds. Use the table view for exact House values.
DemGOP
Dem
GOP
| Projected National Environment | Democrats Control | Republicans Control |
|---|---|---|
| R+3 or redder | <1% | 100% |
| R+2 | <1% | 100% |
| R+1 | 1% | 99% |
| Even | 2% | 98% |
| D+1 | 7% | 93% |
| D+2 | 18% | 82% |
| D+3 | 34% | 66% |
| D+4 | 54% | 46% |
| D+5 | 74% | 26% |
| D+6 | 88% | 12% |
| D+7 | 96% | 4% |
| D+8 or bluer | 100% | <1% |
Forecast Over Time
Democratic and Republican chances of controlling the House, through Sep 7, 2026.
Dem 74%
GOP 26%
Range of Outcomes
All 435 House Races
| PA-08Paige Cognetti vs Rob Bresnahan Jr. | Tossup | 48%52% | R +0.3 |
| FL-22Pia Dandiya vs Casey Askar | Tossup | 47%53% | R +0.6 |
| OH-07Brian Poindexter vs Max Miller | Tossup | 46%54% | R +0.6 |
| VA-01Shannon Taylor vs Robert Wittman | Tossup | 46%54% | R +0.8 |
| NC-01Don Davis vs Laurie Buckhout | Tossup | 45%55% | R +0.8 |
| NC-11Jamie Ager vs Jennifer Balkcom | Tossup | 45%55% | R +1.6 |
| MI-10Christina Bertrand Hines vs Michael Bouchard | Tossup | 55%45% | D +1.1 |
| PA-07Bob Brooks vs Ryan Mackenzie | Tossup | 56%44% | D +2.1 |
| FL-14Kathy Castor vs Mike Beltran | Tossup | 57%43% | D +1.5 |
| CO-08Manny Rutinel vs Gabe Evans | Tossup | 58%42% | D +2.8 |
| TX-35Johnny Garcia vs Carlos De La Cruz | Tossup | 41%59% | R +3.1 |
| MI-07William Lawrence vs Tom Barrett | Tossup | 59%41% | D +2.2 |
| MI-04Sean McCann vs William Huizenga | Lean R | 40%60% | R +1.9 |
| OH-09Marcy Kaptur vs Derek Merrin | Lean D | 61%39% | D +2.4 |
| TX-15Bobby Pulido vs Monica De La Cruz | Lean R | 39%61% | R +1.8 |
| PA-10Janelle Stelson vs Scott Perry | Lean D | 62%38% | D +2.4 |
| WI-03Rebecca Cooke vs Derrick Van Orden | Lean D | 63%37% | D +2.5 |
| CA-22Randy Villegas vs David Valadao | Lean D | 63%37% | D +3.1 |
| IA-01Christina Bohannan vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Lean D | 63%37% | D +2.7 |
| PA-01Robert Harvie vs Brian Fitzpatrick | Lean R | 36%64% | R +2.1 |
| IA-02Lindsay James vs Joe Mitchell | Lean R | 34%66% | R +3.6 |
| IA-03Sarah Trone Garriott vs Zach Nunn | Lean D | 66%34% | D +3.0 |
| TX-34Vicente Gonzalez vs Eric Flores | Lean D | 66%34% | D +3.0 |
| VA-02Elaine Luria vs Jennifer Kiggans | Lean D | 66%34% | D +3.8 |
| FL-07Bale Dalton vs Ryan Elijah | Lean R | 34%66% | R +6.1 |
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