90%
10%GOP
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Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Where the House Breaks
Control by National Environment
Odds each party controls the House under a given projected national environment, with the median seats each would hold.
As the projected national environment becomes more Democratic, Democratic control becomes more likely and Republican control becomes less likely. The lines show House control odds. Use the table view for exact House values.
DemGOP
Dem
GOP
| Projected National Environment | Democrats Control | Republicans Control |
|---|---|---|
| R+2 or redder | <1%197 | 100%238 |
| R+1 | 4%207 | 96%228 |
| Even | 12%211 | 88%224 |
| D+1 | 28%214 | 72%221 |
| D+2 | 50%218 | 50%217 |
| D+3 | 73%221 | 27%214 |
| D+4 | 89%225 | 11%210 |
| D+5 | 96%228 | 4%207 |
| D+6 or bluer | 100%241 | <1%194 |
Forecast Over Time
Range of Outcomes
All 435 House Races
| TX-15Bobby Pulido vs Monica De La Cruz | Tossup | 49%51% | R+0.1 |
| MT-01Sam Forstag vs Aaron Flint | Tossup | 49%51% | R+0.1 |
| TX-35Johnny Garcia vs Carlos De La Cruz | Tossup | 52%48% | D+0.3 |
| MI-04Sean McCann vs Bill Huizenga | Tossup | 53%47% | D+0.5 |
| OH-07Brian Poindexter vs Max Miller | Tossup | 46%54% | R+0.5 |
| ME-02Matthew Dunlap vs Paul LePage | Tossup | 46%54% | R+0.4 |
| KY-06Zach Dembo vs Ralph Alvarado | Tossup | 54%46% | D+0.6 |
| CO-05Jessica Killin vs Jeff Crank | Tossup | 43%57% | R+1.2 |
| FL-22Pia Dandiya vs Casey Askar | Tossup | 60%40% | D+1.4 |
| VA-01Shannon Taylor vs Rob Wittman | Lean D | 60%40% | D+1.0 |
| MI-10Christina Bertrand Hines vs Michael Bouchard | Lean D | 61%39% | D+1.7 |
| PA-08Paige Cognetti vs Rob Bresnahan Jr. | Lean D | 62%38% | D+2.0 |
| IA-02Lindsay James vs Joe Mitchell | Lean D | 62%38% | D+1.9 |
| PA-01Bob Harvie vs Brian Fitzpatrick | Lean R | 38%62% | R+1.2 |
| AL-02Shomari C. Figures vs Rhett Marques | Lean R | 36%64% | R+2.2 |
| OH-09Marcy Kaptur vs Derek Merrin | Lean D | 66%34% | D+2.4 |
| SC-01Nancy Lacore vs Jenny Costa Honeycutt | Lean R | 33%67% | R+2.1 |
| FL-14Kathy Castor vs Mike Beltran | Lean D | 71%29% | D+3.1 |
| WI-01Mitchell Berman vs Bryan Steil | Lean R | 29%71% | R+3.3 |
| MN-01Jake Johnson vs Brad Finstad | Lean R | 28%72% | R+3.1 |
| MI-07William Lawrence vs Tom Barrett | Lean D | 72%28% | D+3.4 |
| CA-22Randy Villegas vs David Valadao | Lean D | 72%28% | D+3.9 |
| FL-27Eliott Rodriguez vs Maria Elvira Salazar | Lean R | 28%72% | R+3.7 |
| NY-17Cait Conley vs Mike Lawler | Lean D | 74%26% | D+3.6 |
| PA-10Janelle Stelson vs Scott Perry | Lean D | 74%26% | D+4.4 |
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