55%
45%Dem
chance of controlling the House
Median: 216 D – 219 R
80% range: 192242 D seats
Solid D 174
Likely D 15
Lean D 17
Tossup 18
Lean R 11
Likely R 36
Solid R 164
206 Dem-favored · 18 Tossup · 211 GOP-favored
AKHI
Tap a state to explore
Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Where the House Breaks
Control Odds Over Time
House control odds - D and GOP chance of control through Jun 8, 2026
Dem 45%
GOP 55%
Range of Outcomes
All 435 House Races
House race forecasts
CO-08Manny Rutinel vs Gabe EvansTossup
51%49%
D +0.2
CA-22TBD vs David ValadaoTossup
49%51%
R +0.2
MI-07Bridget Brink vs Tom BarrettTossup
51%49%
D +0.2
PA-07Bob Brooks vs Ryan MackenzieTossup
49%51%
R +0.3
FL-25Debbie Wasserman Schultz vs Michael CarbonaraTossup
48%52%
R +0.5
VA-02Elaine Luria vs Jennifer KiggansTossup
53%47%
D +0.9
IA-03Sarah Trone Garriott vs Zach NunnTossup
47%53%
R +0.9
PA-10Janelle Stelson vs Scott PerryTossup
46%54%
R +1.0
TX-34Vicente Gonzalez vs Eric FloresTossup
46%54%
R +1.0
IA-01Christina Bohannan vs Mariannette Miller-MeeksTossup
45%55%
R +1.3
WI-03Rebecca Cooke vs Derrick Van OrdenTossup
45%55%
R +1.2
AZ-06Joanna Mendoza vs Juan CiscomaniTossup
55%45%
D +1.4
OH-09Marcy Kaptur vs Derek MerrinTossup
44%56%
R +1.4
FL-14Kathy Castor vs Robert RochfordTossup
44%56%
R +1.6
MI-10Eric Chung vs Robert LulgjurajTossup
44%56%
R +1.7
NJ-07Rebecca Bennett vs Thomas KeanTossup
58%42%
D +1.9
AZ-01Jonathan Treble vs Thomas FeelyTossup
58%42%
D +2.3
WA-03Marie Gluesenkamp Perez vs John BraunTossup
59%41%
D +2.3
FL-22Lois Frankel vs Anna MedvedevaLean R
38%62%
R +3.3
TX-28Henry Cuellar vs Tano TijerinaLean D
62%38%
D +3.5
VA-01Shannon Taylor vs Robert WittmanLean R
38%62%
R +3.3
PA-08Paige Cognetti vs Rob Bresnahan Jr.Lean R
37%63%
R +3.6
NY-17TBD vs Michael LawlerLean D
63%37%
D +3.6
OH-01Greg Landsman vs Eric ConroyLean D
66%34%
D +4.6
CA-13Adam Gray vs Kevin LincolnLean D
67%33%
D +5.0
125 of 435
1 / 18