52%
48%GOP
chance of controlling the House
Median: 218 D – 217 R
80% range: 197243 D seats
D +1% since last week
Solid D 183
Likely D 13
Lean D 14
Tossup 16
Lean R 7
Likely R 40
Solid R 162
210 Dem-favored · 16 Tossup · 209 GOP-favored
AKHI
Tap a state to explore
Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Where the House Breaks
Forecast Over Time
Democratic and Republican chances of controlling the House
Dem 52%
GOP 48%
Range of Outcomes
All 435 House Races
House race forecasts
FL-14Kathy Castor vs Robert RochfordTossup
50%50%
Even
OH-09Marcy Kaptur vs Derek MerrinTossup
51%49%
D +0.1
TX-34Vicente Gonzalez vs Eric FloresTossup
49%51%
R +0.1
PA-07Bob Brooks vs Ryan MackenzieTossup
51%49%
D +0.2
CA-22Randy Villegas vs David ValadaoTossup
52%48%
D +0.4
CO-08Manny Rutinel vs Gabe EvansTossup
53%47%
D +0.7
IA-03Sarah Trone Garriott vs Zach NunnTossup
53%47%
D +0.6
IA-01Christina Bohannan vs Mariannette Miller-MeeksTossup
53%47%
D +0.7
NY-17Cait Conley vs Michael LawlerTossup
54%46%
D +0.6
MI-07Bridget Brink vs Tom BarrettTossup
54%46%
D +0.7
PA-10Janelle Stelson vs Scott PerryTossup
54%46%
D +0.8
MI-10Eric Chung vs Robert LulgjurajTossup
45%55%
R +1.0
WI-03Rebecca Cooke vs Derrick Van OrdenTossup
56%44%
D +1.0
VA-02Elaine Luria vs Jennifer KiggansTossup
56%44%
D +1.3
PA-08Paige Cognetti vs Rob Bresnahan Jr.Tossup
42%58%
R +1.4
FL-22Lois Frankel vs Anna MedvedevaTossup
42%58%
R +2.3
FL-25Debbie Wasserman Schultz vs Michael CarbonaraLean D
61%39%
D +1.9
AZ-06Joanna Mendoza vs Juan CiscomaniLean D
61%39%
D +2.0
NC-11Jamie Ager vs Chuck EdwardsLean R
38%62%
R +3.5
NJ-07Rebecca Bennett vs Thomas KeanLean D
62%38%
D +2.6
AZ-01Amish Shah vs Thomas FeelyLean D
64%36%
D +2.9
WA-03Marie Gluesenkamp Perez vs John BraunLean D
64%36%
D +2.8
TX-28Henry Cuellar vs Tano TijerinaLean D
64%36%
D +2.8
VA-01Shannon Taylor vs Robert WittmanLean R
35%65%
R +2.9
NC-01Don Davis vs Laurie BuckhoutLean R
35%65%
R +2.6
125 of 435
1 / 18