Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District
82%
GOP
18%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +8.4·80% of simulations: R +20.4 to D +3.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +3.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +15.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +10.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.7
Forecasted margin
R +8.4
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | Aug 9, 2026 | R +1 | 400 | lv |
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 16, 2026 | R +9 | 400 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 18%
GOP 82%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+4 This is a competitive district that leans slightly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Mitchell Berman
Republican Bryan Steil (inc.)