Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District

71%

GOP

29%Dem

Lean R

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+3.380% of simulations: R+11.0 to D+4.5

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+3.6

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+12.7

National Environment

current political climate

D+12.1

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+0.9

Forecasted margin

R+3.3

What Changes the Forecast

The national mood is doing most of the work. A big shift or some new polling might move it.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Impact Research House Majority PACDemocratic	Oct 1, 2026	D+1	LV
Impact Research House Majority PACDemocratic	Oct 1, 2026	D+1	LV
DCCC Targeting TeamDemocratic	Sep 23, 2026	Even	LV
Impact Research Mitchell BermanDemocratic	Aug 9, 2026	R+1	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 29%

GOP 71%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Lean R Inside Elections Likely R Sabato Lean R

PVI

R+4 This is a competitive district that leans slightly Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Mitchell Berman

Republican Bryan Steil (inc.)