65%
35%GOP
Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip
Where the Senate Breaks
Democrats have 34 seats that aren't on the ballot. To get to 51, they need 17 out of 35.
34 D seats not up for election
35Massachusetts100% D36Rhode Island100% D37Delaware100% D38Oregon100% D39New Mexico100% D40Colorado100% D41Illinois100% D42Virginia100% D43New Jersey100% D44North Carolina95% D45Georgia95% D46New Hampshire90% D47Minnesota81% D48Ohio74% D49Michigan71% D50Texas66% D
Seat 51 · majority threshold
51Maine64% D52Alaska63% D53Iowa51% D54Kansas55% R55Nebraska73% R56South Carolina74% R57Florida91% R58Mississippi97% R59South Dakota99% R60Louisiana99% R61Montana99% R62Arkansas100% R63Kentucky100% R64Alabama100% R65Tennessee100% R66Idaho100% R67Oklahoma100% R68West Virginia100% R69Wyoming100% RControl by National Environment
Odds each party controls the Senate under a given projected national environment, with the median seats each would hold.
As the projected national environment becomes more Democratic, Democratic control becomes more likely and Republican control becomes less likely. The lines show Senate control odds. Use the table view for exact Senate values.
DemGOP
Dem
GOP
| Projected National Environment | Democrats Control | Republicans Control |
|---|---|---|
| Even or redder | <1%45 | 100%55 |
| D+1 | 2%47 | 98%53 |
| D+2 | 5%47 | 95%53 |
| D+3 | 13%48 | 87%52 |
| D+4 | 25%49 | 75%51 |
| D+5 | 43%50 | 57%50 |
| D+6 | 62%51 | 38%49 |
| D+7 | 78%52 | 22%48 |
| D+8 | 90%53 | 10%47 |
| D+9 | 96%54 | 4%46 |
| D+10 | 99%54 | 1%46 |
| D+11 or bluer | 100%56 | <1%44 |
Tipping Point States
Probability each state will be the decisive race for Senate control.
Control Odds Over Time
Range of Outcomes
All 35 Senate Races
| IowaJosh Turek vs Ashley Hinson | Tossup | 51%49% | D+0.1 |
| KansasAdam Hamilton vs Roger Marshall | Tossup | 45%55% | R+0.7 |
| AlaskaMary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan | Lean D | 63%37% | D+2.4 |
| MaineTroy Jackson vs Susan Collins | Lean D | 64%36% | D+2.0 |
| TexasJames Talarico vs Ken Paxton | Lean D | 66%34% | D+2.2 |
| MichiganAbdul El-Sayed vs Mike Rogers | Lean D | 71%29% | D+3.0 |
| NebraskaDan Osborn vs Pete Ricketts | Lean R | 27%73% | R+3.4 |
| South CarolinaAnnie Andrews vs Darline Graham | Lean R | 26%74% | R+3.4 |
| OhioSherrod Brown vs Jon Husted | Lean D | 74%26% | D+3.5 |
| MinnesotaPeggy Flanagan vs Michele Tafoya | Likely D | 81%19% | D+4.7 |
| New HampshireChris Pappas vs John Sununu | Likely D | 90%10% | D+7.3 |
| FloridaAngie Nixon vs Ashley Moody | Likely R | 9%91% | R+7.6 |
| GeorgiaJon Ossoff vs Mike Collins | Likely D | 95%5% | D+9.2 |
| North CarolinaRoy Cooper vs Michael Whatley | Solid D | 95%5% | D+9.7 |
| MississippiScott Colom vs Cindy Hyde-Smith | Solid R | 3%97% | R+11.6 |
| South DakotaBrian Bengs vs Mike Rounds | Solid R | 1%99% | R+15.0 |
| LouisianaJamie Davis vs Julia Letlow | Solid R | 1%99% | R+17.1 |
| MontanaSeth Bodnar vs Kurt Alme | Solid R | 1%99% | R+15.9 |
| ArkansasHallie Shoffner vs Tom Cotton | Solid R | 0%100% | R+17.3 |
| New JerseyCory Booker vs Justin Murphy | Solid D | 100%0% | D+18.3 |
| VirginiaMark Warner vs Bert Mizusawa | Solid D | 100%0% | D+18.4 |
| KentuckyCharles Booker vs Andy Barr | Solid R | 0%100% | R+19.9 |
| IllinoisJuliana Stratton vs Don Tracy | Solid D | 100%0% | D+18.1 |
| ColoradoJohn Hickenlooper vs Mark Baisley | Solid D | 100%0% | D+19.4 |
| New MexicoBen Ray Lujan vs Larry Marker | Solid D | 100%0% | D+18.3 |
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