67%
33%Dem
Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip
Where the Senate Breaks
Democrats have 34 seats that aren't on the ballot. To get to 51, they need 17 out of 35.
34 D seats not up for election
35Massachusetts100% D36Rhode Island100% D37Delaware100% D38Oregon99% D39Colorado99% D40Illinois99% D41New Mexico99% D42New Jersey99% D43Virginia99% D44Minnesota93% D45Georgia82% D46New Hampshire81% D47North Carolina71% D48Maine66% D49Michigan63% D50Ohio56% R← GOP Holds | Dem Flips →
51 for majority
51Alaska63% R52Iowa71% R53Texas75% R54Florida94% R55Nebraska94% R56South Carolina97% R57Montana98% R58Kansas98% R59Mississippi98% R60Louisiana99% R61Kentucky99% R62Alabama100% R63Tennessee100% R64South Dakota100% R65Arkansas100% R66Oklahoma100% R67Idaho100% R68West Virginia100% R69Wyoming100% RSorted from most likely D to most likely R. The highlighted race is the tipping point. Win that race, win the Senate.
Tipping Point States
Probability each state will be the decisive race for Senate control.
Control Odds Over Time
Democratic and Republican chances of controlling the Senate, through Jul 24, 2026
Dem 33%
GOP 67%
Range of Outcomes
All 35 Senate Races
| OhioSherrod Brown vs Jon Husted | Tossup | 44%56% | R +1.1 |
| MichiganHaley Stevens vs Mike Rogers | Lean D | 63%37% | D +2.3 |
| AlaskaMary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan | Lean R | 37%63% | R +2.4 |
| MaineTBD vs Susan Collins | Lean D | 66%34% | D +2.9 |
| IowaJosh Turek vs Ashley Hinson | Lean R | 29%71% | R +3.9 |
| North CarolinaRoy Cooper vs Michael Whatley | Lean D | 71%29% | D +3.9 |
| TexasJames Talarico vs Ken Paxton | Lean R | 25%75% | R +4.7 |
| New HampshireChris Pappas vs John Sununu | Likely D | 81%19% | D +6.3 |
| GeorgiaJon Ossoff vs Mike Collins | Likely D | 82%18% | D +6.4 |
| MinnesotaPeggy Flanagan vs Adam Schwarze | Likely D | 93%7% | D +11.3 |
| FloridaTBD vs Ashley Moody | Likely R | 6%94% | R +11.9 |
| NebraskaDan Osborn vs Pete Ricketts | Likely R | 6%94% | R +12.4 |
| South CarolinaAnnie Andrews vs TBD | Solid R | 3%97% | R +14.1 |
| MontanaAlani Bankhead vs Kurt Alme | Solid R | 2%98% | R +15.9 |
| KansasSandy Sidel Neumann vs Roger Marshall | Solid R | 2%98% | R +16.1 |
| MississippiScott Colom vs Cindy Hyde-Smith | Solid R | 2%98% | R +16.9 |
| VirginiaMark Warner vs TBD | Solid D | 99%1% | D +17.7 |
| New JerseyCory Booker vs Justin Murphy | Solid D | 99%1% | D +17.9 |
| New MexicoBen Ray Lujan vs Larry Marker | Solid D | 99%1% | D +18.1 |
| IllinoisJuliana Stratton vs Don Tracy | Solid D | 99%1% | D +18.4 |
| LouisianaJamie Davis vs Julia Letlow | Solid R | 1%99% | R +19.3 |
| ColoradoJohn Hickenlooper vs Mark Baisley | Solid D | 99%1% | D +19.1 |
| KentuckyCharles Booker vs Andy Barr | Solid R | 1%99% | R +20.9 |
| OregonJeff Merkley vs David Brock Smith | Solid D | 99%1% | D +19.9 |
| DelawareChris Coons vs Michael Katz | Solid D | 100%0% | D +20.7 |
1–25 of 35
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