55%
45%Dem
Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip
Where the Senate Breaks
Democrats have 34 seats that aren't on the ballot. To get to 51, they need 17 out of 35.
34 D seats not up for election
35Massachusetts100% D36Rhode Island100% D37Delaware100% D38Oregon100% D39Colorado99% D40Illinois99% D41New Mexico99% D42Virginia99% D43New Jersey99% D44Minnesota92% D45Georgia83% D46North Carolina83% D47New Hampshire75% D48Maine66% D49Michigan65% D50Ohio59% D
Seat 51 · majority threshold
51Texas54% D52Alaska52% R53Iowa66% R54Kansas92% R55Nebraska94% R56South Carolina96% R57Florida97% R58Mississippi98% R59Arkansas99% R60Louisiana99% R61Montana99% R62Kentucky99% R63Alabama100% R64South Dakota100% R65Oklahoma100% R66Tennessee100% R67Idaho100% R68West Virginia100% R69Wyoming100% RControl by National Environment
Odds each party controls the Senate under a given projected national environment.
As the projected national environment becomes more Democratic, Democratic control becomes more likely and Republican control becomes less likely. The lines show Senate control odds. Use the table view for exact Senate values.
DemGOP
Dem
GOP
| Projected National Environment | Democrats Control | Republicans Control |
|---|---|---|
| D+2 or redder | 1% | 99% |
| D+3 | 4% | 96% |
| D+4 | 10% | 90% |
| D+5 | 19% | 81% |
| D+6 | 33% | 67% |
| D+7 | 48% | 52% |
| D+8 | 64% | 36% |
| D+9 | 78% | 22% |
| D+10 or bluer | 95% | 5% |
Tipping Point States
Probability each state will be the decisive race for Senate control.
Control Odds Over Time
Democratic and Republican chances of controlling the Senate, through Sep 7, 2026.
Dem 45%
GOP 55%
Range of Outcomes
All 35 Senate Races
| AlaskaMary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan | Tossup | 48%52% | R +0.3 |
| TexasJames Talarico vs Ken Paxton | Tossup | 54%46% | D +0.7 |
| OhioSherrod Brown vs Jon Husted | Tossup | 59%41% | D +1.4 |
| MichiganAbdul El-Sayed vs Mike Rogers | Lean D | 65%35% | D +2.4 |
| IowaJosh Turek vs Ashley Hinson | Lean R | 34%66% | R +2.5 |
| MaineTroy Jackson vs Susan Collins | Lean D | 66%34% | D +2.6 |
| New HampshireChris Pappas vs John Sununu | Lean D | 75%25% | D +4.2 |
| North CarolinaRoy Cooper vs Michael Whatley | Likely D | 83%17% | D +5.9 |
| GeorgiaJon Ossoff vs Mike Collins | Likely D | 83%17% | D +6.4 |
| KansasAdam Hamilton vs Roger Marshall | Likely R | 8%92% | R +9.9 |
| MinnesotaPeggy Flanagan vs Michele Tafoya | Likely D | 92%8% | D +10.3 |
| NebraskaDan Osborn vs Pete Ricketts | Likely R | 6%94% | R +12.2 |
| South CarolinaAnnie Andrews vs Darline Graham | Solid R | 4%96% | R +12.2 |
| FloridaAngie Nixon vs Ashley Moody | Solid R | 3%97% | R +13.8 |
| MississippiScott Colom vs Cindy Hyde-Smith | Solid R | 2%98% | R +15.6 |
| ArkansasHallie Shoffner vs Tom Cotton | Solid R | 1%99% | R +16.8 |
| New JerseyCory Booker vs Justin Murphy | Solid D | 99%1% | D +17.8 |
| VirginiaMark Warner vs Bert Mizusawa | Solid D | 99%1% | D +17.9 |
| New MexicoBen Ray Lujan vs Larry Marker | Solid D | 99%1% | D +17.7 |
| LouisianaJamie Davis vs Julia Letlow | Solid R | 1%99% | R +19.1 |
| IllinoisJuliana Stratton vs Don Tracy | Solid D | 99%1% | D +18.4 |
| MontanaAlani Bankhead vs Kurt Alme | Solid R | 1%99% | R +18.1 |
| KentuckyCharles Booker vs Andy Barr | Solid R | 1%99% | R +20.2 |
| ColoradoJohn Hickenlooper vs Mark Baisley | Solid D | 99%1% | D +19.0 |
| OregonJeff Merkley vs David Brock Smith | Solid D | 100%0% | D +19.9 |
1–25 of 35
1 / 2