Rhode Island Senate

100%

Dem

0%GOP

Solid D

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D +21.6·80% of simulations: D +11.6 to D +31.6

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D +14.3

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D +3.4

National Environment

current political climate

D +4.1

Polls

recent state and district polling

R +0.2

Forecasted margin

D +21.6

Polls

Polls (1)

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
University of New Hampshire	Jun 23, 2026	D +17	627	lv

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time

Dem 100%

GOP 0%

Race Details