Rhode Island Senate

100%

Dem

0%GOP

Solid D

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D +22.0·80% of simulations: D +14.2 to D +29.8

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D +14.3

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D +3.7

National Environment

current political climate

D +3.6

Polls

recent state and district polling

D +0.4

Forecasted margin

D +22.0

What Changes the Forecast

The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
University of New Hampshire	Aug 24, 2026	D +20	722	lv
University of New Hampshire	Jun 23, 2026	D +17	627	lv
University of New Hampshire	Apr 20, 2026	D +18	556	lv

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 100%

GOP 0%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid D Inside Elections Solid D Sabato Safe D

State lean

D+16 This state leans strongly Democrat.

Candidates

Democrat Jack Reed (inc.)

Republican Raymond Mckay