Rhode Island Senate

100%

Dem

0%GOP

Solid D

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D+27.380% of simulations: D+21.2 to D+33.5

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D+14.3

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D+6.0

National Environment

current political climate

D+4.3

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+2.7

Forecasted margin

D+27.3

What Changes the Forecast

This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Emerson College WPRI-TV	Oct 11, 2026	D+34	LV
Embold Research Salve Regina University	Oct 8, 2026	D+23	LV
University of New Hampshire	Sep 21, 2026	D+20	LV
University of New Hampshire	Aug 24, 2026	D+20	LV
University of New Hampshire	Jun 23, 2026	D+17	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 100%

GOP 0%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid D Inside Elections Solid D Sabato Safe D

PVI

D+16 This state leans strongly Democrat.

Candidates

Democrat Jack Reed (inc.)

Republican Raymond Mckay