Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District
99%
Dem
1%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+7.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D+1.4
National Environment
current political climate
D+10.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
R+1.2
Forecasted margin
D+18.6
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College WPRI-TV | Oct 11, 2026 | D+16 | LV |
| Embold Research Salve Regina University | Oct 8, 2026 | D+13 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 99%
GOP 1%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+9 This district leans Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Seth Magaziner (inc.)
Republican Victor Mellor