Rhode Island Governor
100%
Dem
0%Ind
Other candidates
- Aaron Guckian (R)<1%
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +25.1·80% of simulations: D +16.0 to D +33.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
D +17.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +1.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.8
Forecasted margin
D +25.0
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinion Diagnostics | Sep 25, 2026 | D +17 | 800 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 21, 2026 | D +19 | 596 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | Aug 24, 2026 | D +21 | 739 | lv |
| Emerson College | Aug 22, 2026 | D +24 | 1,000 | lv |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 23, 2026 | D +19 | 630 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and Ind (purple) win probability over time.
Dem 100%
Ind 0%
Race Details
- State lean
- D+16 This state leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Helena Foulkes
Independent Ken Block
Republican Aaron Guckian
- Seat context
- Open seat: Dan McKee lost the Democratic primary.