Wisdom of the Crowd
Think you can do better? Prove it.
Set the odds for all 35 Senate races. See how you stack up against us...and everyone else.
How it works
How to play
- Call all 35 races. Each call is the chance that the Democrat (or independent) wins.
- Hit "Submit" to save your ballot. Change your calls as often as you like until noon Eastern on Election Day, November 3. At that time, all calls are locked.
- The Crowd is the average of players’ submitted win chances.
- Sign in and choose a username to enter. You can make your calls first; they stay on this device until you sign in.
How scoring works
Once races are called, your picks will be graded and put onto the leaderboard.
Scores and rankings appear once every Senate race is called by the Associated Press. Each race is scored with a Brier score: the square of the gap between your chance and what happened. Lower is better. Your score is your average across called races.
| Your chance the Democrat (or independent) wins | They win | They lose |
|---|---|---|
| 90% | 0.010 | 0.810 |
| 70% | 0.090 | 0.490 |
| 50% | 0.250 | 0.250 |
A perfect call scores 0, a coin flip scores 0.250 and being sure and wrong scores 1. The formula is (chance − result)², with your chance from 0 to 1 and the result 1 if they win and 0 if they lose.
Points sit beside your Brier score. Each race is worth (1,000 ÷ 35) × (1 − Brier), so 35 perfect calls make 1,000 points. More points mean a lower Brier score.
The closest guess to the AP’s Florida governor call breaks a tie. Solid Purple’s forecast at the lock and the Crowd are scored the same way, for comparison.
If you sign in, your username and calls are public. Privacy details
2026 Senate races
Set the odds of each candidate winning, not their expected margin. Move the line toward the candidate you favor.
0/35 races called
Call all 35 races to submit.
0/35 races called
Call all 35 races to submit.