Rhode Island's 1st Congressional District

100%

Dem

0%GOP

Solid D

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D+29.680% of simulations: D+23.2 to D+36.0

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D+22.0

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D+1.2

National Environment

current political climate

D+6.6

Polls

recent state and district polling

R+0.2

Forecasted margin

D+29.6

What Changes the Forecast

This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Emerson College WPRI-TV	Oct 11, 2026	D+28	LV
Embold Research Salve Regina University	Oct 8, 2026	D+19	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 100%

GOP 0%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid D Inside Elections Solid D Sabato Safe D

PVI

D+24 This is a safe Democrat district.

Candidates

Democrat Gabe Amo (inc.)

Republican Kellie Keenan