Tennessee Senate
100%
GOP
0%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+25.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+2.4
National Environment
current political climate
D+3.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+0.5
Forecasted margin
R+24.2
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research Beacon Center | Aug 26, 2026 | R+25 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 0%
GOP 100%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+29 This is a safe Republican state.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Marquita Bradshaw
Republican Bill Hagerty (inc.)