Tennessee Senate
100%
GOP
0%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +23.7·80% of simulations: R +31.6 to R +15.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +25.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +0.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.6
Forecasted margin
R +23.7
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | Aug 26, 2026 | R +25 | 607 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 0%
GOP 100%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- State lean
- R+29 This is a safe Republican state.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Marquita Bradshaw
Republican Bill Hagerty (inc.)