Tennessee's 9th Congressional District

95%

GOP

5%Dem

Likely R

▲ R+1% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+13.480% of simulations: R+23.7 to R+3.1

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+16.2

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+6.0

National Environment

current political climate

D+7.6

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+1.2

Forecasted margin

R+13.4

What Changes the Forecast

We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies Tennessee Rise PAC, Three Star PACDemocratic	Sep 3, 2026	R+4	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 5%

GOP 95%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Safe R

PVI

R+18 This district leans strongly Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Justin Pearson

Republican Brent Taylor