Tennessee's 5th Congressional District
95%
GOP
5%Dem
▲ R+1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+18.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+3.7
National Environment
current political climate
D+7.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+1.6
Forecasted margin
R+12.9
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research Chaz MolderDemocratic | Oct 1, 2026 | R+5 | LV |
| Impact Research Chaz MolderDemocratic | Aug 24, 2026 | R+8 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 5%
GOP 95%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+20 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Chaz Molder
Republican Charlie Hatcher