Tennessee's 5th Congressional District
94%
GOP
6%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +13.1·80% of simulations: R +23.9 to R +2.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +18.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +2.4
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.2
Forecasted margin
R +13.1
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | Aug 24, 2026 | R +8 | 500 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 7%
GOP 93%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+20 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Chaz Molder
Republican Charlie Hatcher