Tennessee Governor
100%
GOP
0%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
R+31.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D+1.5
National Environment
current political climate
D+4.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+2.9
Forecasted margin
R+22.7
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spry Strategies | Oct 16, 2026 | R+11 | LV |
| TargetSmart The Progress Fund PACDemocratic | Sep 12, 2026 | R+9 | LV |
| Targoz Market Research Beacon Center | Aug 26, 2026 | R+21 | LV |
| Targoz Market Research Beacon Center | Apr 27, 2026 | R+24 | RV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 0%
GOP 100%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+29 This is a safe Republican state.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Jerri Green
Republican Marsha Blackburn
- Seat context
- Open seat: Bill Lee is term-limited.