Idaho Senate

100%

GOP

0%Dem

Solid R

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R +26.6·80% of simulations: R +34.6 to R +18.6

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +32.5

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D +3.1

National Environment

current political climate

D +2.8

Polls

recent state and district polling

Even

Forecasted margin

R +26.6

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
Peak Insights	Jun 7, 2026	R +40	500	lv
The Bullfinch Group	Jun 1, 2026	R +17	774	rv

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 0%

GOP 100%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Safe R

State lean

R+36 This is a safe Republican state.

Candidates

Democrat David Roth

Republican Jim Risch (inc.)