Idaho Senate

100%

GOP

0%Ind

Solid R

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+23.680% of simulations: R+30.2 to R+17.0

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+32.5

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

I+0.1

National Environment

current political climate

I+3.3

Polls

recent state and district polling

I+5.5

Forecasted margin

R+23.6

What Changes the Forecast

The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
VoteNexus Knock Every Door PAC	Oct 22, 2026	R+6	LV
Peak Insights James RischRepublican	Sep 30, 2026	R+25	LV
Peak Insights James RischRepublican	Aug 13, 2026	R+34	LV
The Bullfinch Group Todd Achilles	Aug 7, 2026	R+4	LV
Change Research John Stegner	Jul 30, 2026	R+24	LV

Forecast Over Time

Ind (purple) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Ind 0%

GOP 100%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Safe R

PVI

R+36 This is a safe Republican state.

Candidates

Independent Todd Achilles

Republican Jim Risch (inc.)