Idaho Senate

100%

GOP

0%Dem

Solid R

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R +28.0·80% of simulations: R +39.1 to R +16.8

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +32.5

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D +0.7

National Environment

current political climate

D +1.8

Polls

recent state and district polling

D +2.0

Forecasted margin

R +28.0

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
The Bullfinch Group	Jun 1, 2026	R +17	774	rv

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Forecast Over Time

D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time

D 0%

R 100%

Race Details