Idaho Governor
100%
GOP
0%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
R+29.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+14.7
National Environment
current political climate
D+4.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+4.7
Forecasted margin
R+35.5
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| VoteNexus Knock Every Door PAC | Oct 22, 2026 | R+19 | LV |
| Change Research John Stegner | Jul 30, 2026 | R+21 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 0%
GOP 100%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+36 This is a safe Republican state.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Terri Pickens
Republican Brad Little (inc.)