Idaho's 2nd Congressional District

100%

GOP

0%Dem

Solid R

▲ R+2% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+20.980% of simulations: R+29.2 to R+12.6

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+23.7

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+4.5

National Environment

current political climate

D+6.5

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+0.8

Forecasted margin

R+20.9

What Changes the Forecast

This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
VoteNexus Knock Every Door PAC	Oct 22, 2026	R+15	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 0%

GOP 100%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Safe R

PVI

R+26 This is a safe Republican district.

Candidates

Democrat Elinor Gilbreath

Republican Mike Simpson (inc.)