Idaho's 2nd Congressional District

98%

GOP

2%Dem

Solid R

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R +22.1·80% of simulations: R +34.1 to R +10.1

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +23.7

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R +4.4

National Environment

current political climate

D +5.5

Polls

recent state and district polling

D +0.5

Forecasted margin

R +22.1

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Polls

No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 2%

GOP 98%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Safe R

District lean

R+26 This is a safe Republican district.

Candidates

Democrat Elinor Gilbreath

Republican Michael Simpson (inc.)