Idaho's 1st Congressional District

100%

GOP

0%Dem

Solid R

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+32.780% of simulations: R+39.1 to R+26.4

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+39.9

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D+0.4

National Environment

current political climate

D+6.3

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+0.5

Forecasted margin

R+32.7

What Changes the Forecast

This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
VoteNexus Knock Every Door PAC	Oct 22, 2026	R+26	LV
SurveyUSA Sarah Zabel	Jul 14, 2026	R+10	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 0%

GOP 100%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Safe R

PVI

R+43 This is a safe Republican district.

Candidates

Democrat Kaylee Peterson

Republican Russ Fulcher (inc.)

Independent Sarah Zabel not in the forecast