Idaho's 1st Congressional District
100%
GOP
0%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +33.4·80% of simulations: R +41.2 to R +25.6
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +39.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +0.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.5
Forecasted margin
R +33.4
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | Jul 14, 2026 | R +10 | 480 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 0%
GOP 100%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+43 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Kaylee Peterson
Republican Russ Fulcher (inc.)