Florida Senate
85%
GOP
15%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +11.1·80% of simulations: R +24.9 to D +2.6
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +9.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +4.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.7
Forecasted margin
R +11.1
Polls
Polls (12)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | Apr 13, 2026 | R +13 | 414 | lv |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | Apr 13, 2026 | R +7 | 434 | lv |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 9, 2026 | R +7 | 406 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Apr 3, 2026 | R +3 | 574 | rv |
| MDW Communications | Apr 3, 2026 | R +1 | 1,834 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 15%
R 85%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This state leans strongly Republican (R+11).
- Candidates
- Ashley Moody (R) Democratic challenger pending
- Seat Context
- Special election in 2026. The seat is currently held by an appointee. One major-party nominee is pending.