Florida Senate
97%
GOP
3%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +13.8·80% of simulations: R +22.6 to R +4.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +9.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +9.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +4.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.7
Forecasted margin
R +13.8
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of North Florida | Jul 17, 2026 | R +8 | 848 | lv |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | Apr 13, 2026 | R +13 | 414 | lv |
| Emerson College | Mar 31, 2026 | R +11 | 1,125 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 3%
GOP 97%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- State lean
- R+11 This state leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Angie Nixon
Republican Ashley Moody
- Seat context
- Special election in 2026. The seat is currently held by an appointee.