Florida Senate
91%
GOP
9%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+9.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+8.4
National Environment
current political climate
D+5.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+5.3
Forecasted margin
R+7.6
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (19)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| co/ | Oct 20, 2026 | R+8 | LV |
| co/ | Oct 20, 2026 | R+6 | LV |
| University of North Florida | Oct 19, 2026 | R+4 | LV |
| YouGov Univision | Oct 15, 2026 | R+9 | RV |
| ActiVote | Oct 15, 2026 | R+6 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 9%
GOP 91%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+11 This state leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Angie Nixon
Republican Ashley Moody
- Seat context
- Special election in 2026. The seat is currently held by an appointee.