Florida Senate
94%
GOP
6%Dem
▲ D +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +11.8·80% of simulations: R +23.4 to R +0.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +9.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +7.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +4.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
R +11.9
Polls
Polls (12)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | Apr 13, 2026 | R +13 | 414 | lv |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | Apr 13, 2026 | R +7 | 434 | lv |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 9, 2026 | R +7 | 406 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Apr 3, 2026 | R +3 | 574 | rv |
| MDW Communications | Apr 3, 2026 | R +1 | 1,834 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 6%
GOP 94%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This state leans strongly Republican (R+11).
- Candidates
- Ashley Moody (R) Democratic challenger pending
- Seat Context
- Special election in 2026. The seat is currently held by an appointee. One major-party nominee is pending.