Florida's 9th Congressional District
85%
GOP
15%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+14.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+2.6
National Environment
current political climate
D+8.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+1.4
Forecasted margin
R+7.0
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA Polling Darren SotoDemocratic | Oct 15, 2026 | Even | LV |
| SEA Polling Darren SotoDemocratic | Aug 30, 2026 | Even | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 15%
GOP 85%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+15 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Darren Soto (inc.)
Republican Dan Green