Florida's 9th Congressional District
78%
GOP
22%Dem
▲ R +7% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +6.9·80% of simulations: R +18.4 to D +4.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +14.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +1.4
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.5
Forecasted margin
R +6.9
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA Polling | Aug 30, 2026 | Even | 400 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 22%
GOP 78%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+15 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Darren Soto (inc.)
Republican Dan Green