Florida's 17th Congressional District
96%
GOP
4%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +19.0·80% of simulations: R +32.1 to R +5.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +18.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +6.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.4
Forecasted margin
R +19.0
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 4%
GOP 96%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+20 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Matthew Montavon
Republican Greg Steube (inc.)