Florida's 17th Congressional District
95%
GOP
5%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+18.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+7.5
National Environment
current political climate
D+7.1
Polls
polling in similar districts
D+0.2
Forecasted margin
R+18.7
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 5%
GOP 95%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+20 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Matthew Montavon
Republican Greg Steube (inc.)