Florida's 12th Congressional District

R +1% since last week
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +12.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +7.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +12.1

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Polls

No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.

Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 19%
GOP 81%
Race Details
Expert ratings
Cook Likely R Inside Elections Likely R Sabato Likely R
District lean
R+13 This district leans strongly Republican.
Candidates

Democrat Kimberly Overman

Republican Gus Bilirakis (inc.)