Florida's 14th Congressional District
57%
Dem
43%GOP
▲ D +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +1.5·80% of simulations: R +10.5 to D +13.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +8.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.5
Forecasted margin
D +1.5
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | Jul 15, 2026 | D +9 | 469 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 57%
GOP 43%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+9 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Kathy Castor (inc.)
Republican Mike Beltran