Florida's 14th Congressional District
50%
GOP
50%Dem
▲ D +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: Even·80% of simulations: R +12.5 to D +12.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +8.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.9
Forecasted margin
Even
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | Jul 15, 2026 | D +9 | 469 | lv |
| St. Pete Polls | Jul 15, 2026 | D +8 | 469 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 50%
GOP 50%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+9).
- Candidates
- Kathy Castor (D) (inc.) Robert Rochford (R)