Florida's 14th Congressional District
71%
Dem
29%GOP
▲ D+4% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+8.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+0.2
National Environment
current political climate
D+10.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+0.7
Forecasted margin
D+3.1
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College Poll Vault | Oct 14, 2026 | D+5 | LV |
| St. Pete Polls Florida Politics | Jul 15, 2026 | D+9 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 71%
GOP 29%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+9 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Kathy Castor (inc.)
Republican Mike Beltran