Florida's 16th Congressional District
87%
GOP
13%Dem
▲ R +7% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +9.9·80% of simulations: R +21.5 to D +1.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +10.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +9.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +2.2
Forecasted margin
R +9.9
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA Polling | Aug 29, 2026 | D +1 | 400 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 13%
GOP 87%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+12 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Kelly Kirschner
Republican Sydney Gruters
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.