Florida's 16th Congressional District
▲ D+2% since last week
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+10.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+7.5
National Environment
current political climate
D+9.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+1.1
Forecasted margin
R+7.8

What Changes the Forecast

We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.

Polls

Polls (2)

Race polls
PollsterDateMarginPopulation
Public Policy Polling American Democracy ProjectDemocraticOct 2, 2026R+4RV
SEA Polling Kelly KirschnerDemocraticAug 29, 2026D+1LV
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 13%
GOP 87%
Race Details
Expert ratings
Cook Likely R Inside Elections Likely R Sabato Likely R
PVI
R+12 This district leans strongly Republican.
Candidates

Democrat Kelly Kirschner

Republican Sydney Gruters

Seat context
Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.
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