Florida's 4th Congressional District
86%
GOP
14%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+9.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+14.9
National Environment
current political climate
D+9.8
Polls
polling in similar districts
D+0.2
Forecasted margin
R+14.8
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 14%
GOP 86%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+11 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat LaShonda Holloway
Republican Aaron Bean (inc.)