Florida's 4th Congressional District
87%
GOP
13%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +14.9·80% of simulations: R +32.2 to D +2.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +9.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +13.4
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
R +14.9
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 13%
GOP 87%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+11 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat LaShonda Holloway
Republican Aaron Bean (inc.)