Florida's 13th Congressional District
90%
GOP
10%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +8.4·80% of simulations: R +16.7 to R +0.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +11.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.6
Forecasted margin
R +8.4
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | Aug 6, 2026 | R +8 | 400 | lv |
| GQR | Aug 6, 2026 | R +3 | 500 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | May 20, 2026 | R +2 | 616 | rv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 10%
GOP 90%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+12 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Leela Gray
Republican Anna Paulina Luna (inc.)