Florida's 13th Congressional District
85%
GOP
15%Dem
▲ R+1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+11.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+3.8
National Environment
current political climate
D+9.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+0.5
Forecasted margin
R+5.0
What Changes the Forecast
Everything agrees. Politics may yet find a way to make this weird.
Polls
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research Associates/ | Aug 27, 2026 | D+1 | LV |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates Anna Paulina LunaRepublican | Aug 6, 2026 | R+8 | LV |
| GQR Leela GrayDemocratic | Aug 6, 2026 | R+3 | LV |
| Public Policy Polling Leela GrayDemocratic | May 20, 2026 | R+2 | RV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 15%
GOP 85%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+12 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Leela Gray
Republican Anna Paulina Luna (inc.)