Florida's 28th Congressional District
95%
GOP
5%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +17.8·80% of simulations: R +31.4 to R +4.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +19.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +4.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.4
Forecasted margin
R +17.8
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 5%
GOP 95%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+21 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Phil Ehr
Republican Carlos Gimenez (inc.)