Florida's 21st Congressional District
97%
GOP
3%Dem
▲ R+7% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+13.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+12.1
National Environment
current political climate
D+8.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+0.6
Forecasted margin
R+16.3
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upswing Research James MartinDemocratic | Sep 25, 2026 | R+11 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 3%
GOP 97%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+15 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat James Martin
Republican Brian Mast (inc.)