Florida's 21st Congressional District
90%
GOP
10%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +16.8·80% of simulations: R +33.2 to R +0.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +13.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +10.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +16.8
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 10%
GOP 90%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+15 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat James Martin
Republican Brian Mast (inc.)