Florida's 1st Congressional District
100%
GOP
0%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+33.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+2.0
National Environment
current political climate
D+6.3
Polls
polling in similar districts
D+0.4
Forecasted margin
R+28.8
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 0%
GOP 100%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+36 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Gay Valimont
Republican Jimmy Patronis (inc.)
- Seat context
- Special-election seat. Last filled in April 2025.