Florida's 27th Congressional District
72%
GOP
28%Dem
▲ D+1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+10.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+4.1
National Environment
current political climate
D+9.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+0.8
Forecasted margin
R+3.7
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research House Majority PACDemocratic | Sep 13, 2026 | R+1 | LV |
| Bendixen & Amandi International Eliott RodriguezDemocratic | Aug 30, 2026 | Even | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 28%
GOP 72%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+11 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Eliott Rodriguez
Republican Maria Elvira Salazar (inc.)