Florida's 22nd Congressional District
53%
GOP
47%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +0.6·80% of simulations: R +12.3 to D +11.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +6.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +3.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +0.6
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research | Aug 12, 2026 | Even | 551 | lv |
| GQR | Jun 25, 2026 | R +2 | 400 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 47%
GOP 53%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+7 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Pia Dandiya
Republican Casey Askar