Florida's 22nd Congressional District
60%
Dem
40%GOP
▲ D+1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+6.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+3.1
National Environment
current political climate
D+11.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D+1.4
What Changes the Forecast
This could go either way. A small polling shift might flip the whole thing.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research | Aug 12, 2026 | Even | LV |
| GQR Pia DandiyaDemocratic | Jun 25, 2026 | R+2 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 60%
GOP 40%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+7 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Pia Dandiya
Republican Casey Askar