Florida's 26th Congressional District
91%
GOP
9%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +17.3·80% of simulations: R +33.4 to R +1.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +13.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +11.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +17.3
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 9%
GOP 91%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+14 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Nicole Locklin
Republican Mario Diaz-Balart (inc.)