Florida's 25th Congressional District
69%
Dem
31%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +4.3·80% of simulations: R +7.4 to D +15.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +5.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +0.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
D +4.3
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Seat | May 6, 2026 | D +12 | 576 | lv |
| Beacon Insights | May 2, 2026 | D +10 | 461 | rv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 69%
GOP 31%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+6 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Jared Moskowitz (inc.)
Republican Scott Singer