Florida's 25th Congressional District
75%
Dem
25%GOP
▲ R+6% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+5.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+0.6
National Environment
current political climate
D+11.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
R+1.6
Forecasted margin
D+4.2
What Changes the Forecast
The national mood is doing most of the work. A big shift or some new polling might move it.
Polls
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling House Majority PACDemocratic | Oct 22, 2026 | D+5 | LV |
| National Research NRCCRepublican | Oct 15, 2026 | R+7 | LV |
| Middle Seat Oliver LarkinDemocratic | May 6, 2026 | D+12 | LV |
| Beacon Insights | May 2, 2026 | D+10 | RV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 75%
GOP 25%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+6 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Jared Moskowitz (inc.)
Republican Scott Singer