Florida's 19th Congressional District
99%
GOP
1%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +22.5·80% of simulations: R +34.3 to R +10.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +26.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +2.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.4
Forecasted margin
R +22.5
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 2%
GOP 98%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+28 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Victor Arias
Republican Jim Schwartzel
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for governor of Florida.