Florida's 3rd Congressional District
93%
GOP
7%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +18.6·80% of simulations: R +34.1 to R +3.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +17.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +7.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
R +18.6
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 7%
GOP 93%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+20 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Seth Harp
Republican Kat Cammack (inc.)