Florida Governor
76%
GOP
24%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +4.4·80% of simulations: R +12.8 to D +4.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
R +11.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +0.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.0
Forecasted margin
R +4.4
What Changes the Forecast
Everything agrees. Politics may yet find a way to make this weird.
Polls
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | Oct 7, 2026 | Even | 836 | lv |
| YouGov | Oct 5, 2026 | R +2 | 3,813 | lv |
| Targoz Market Research | Oct 4, 2026 | R +10 | 849 | lv |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | Oct 1, 2026 | R +7 | 625 | lv |
| Change Research | Sep 27, 2026 | D +2 | 1,063 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 24%
GOP 76%
Race Details
- State lean
- R+11 This state leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat David Jolly
Republican Byron Donalds
- Seat context
- Open seat: Ron DeSantis is term-limited.