Florida's 8th Congressional District
97%
GOP
3%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +15.5·80% of simulations: R +25.8 to R +5.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +13.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +9.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.4
Forecasted margin
R +15.5
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 18, 2026 | R +9 | 633 | rv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 3%
GOP 97%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+15 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Jennifer Jenkins
Republican Mike Haridopolos (inc.)