Florida's 11th Congressional District
— No change since last week
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+13.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+10.9
National Environment
current political climate
D+8.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+0.7
Forecasted margin
R+14.8

What Changes the Forecast

This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.

Polls

Polls (1)

Race polls
PollsterDateMarginPopulation
MDW Communications James PericolaDemocraticJul 30, 2026EvenLV
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 4%
GOP 96%
Race Details
Expert ratings
Cook Solid R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Safe R
PVI
R+14 This district leans strongly Republican.
Candidates

Democrat James Pericola

Republican Joe Strada

Seat context
Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection in 2026.
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