Florida's 11th Congressional District

94%

GOP

6%Dem

Likely R

▲ D +1% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R +17.2·80% of simulations: R +33.2 to R +1.1

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +13.1

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R +8.5

National Environment

current political climate

D +4.3

Polls

recent state and district polling

D +0.1

Forecasted margin

R +17.2

Polls

No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time

Dem 6%

GOP 94%

Race Details