Florida's 11th Congressional District
95%
GOP
5%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +14.1·80% of simulations: R +24.7 to R +3.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +13.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +9.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.4
Forecasted margin
R +14.1
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDW Communications | Jul 30, 2026 | Even | 1,044 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 5%
GOP 95%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+14 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat James Pericola
Republican Joe Strada
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection in 2026.