South Dakota Senate
99%
GOP
1%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +23.9·80% of simulations: R +35.9 to R +11.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +26.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +1.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +23.9
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Feb 18, 2026 | R +17 | 685 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | Nov 14, 2025 | R +22 | 814 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 1%
R 99%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This is a safe Republican state (R+29).
- Candidates
- Julian Beaudion (D) Mike Rounds (R) (inc.)