South Dakota's At-Large Congressional District

100%

GOP

0%Dem

Solid R

▲ R+1% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+22.680% of simulations: R+30.2 to R+15.0

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+26.8

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+2.1

National Environment

current political climate

D+6.4

Polls

recent state and district polling

R+0.1

Forecasted margin

R+22.6

What Changes the Forecast

This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.	Oct 14, 2026	R+28	RV
Lake Research Partners Nikki GronliDemocratic	Aug 30, 2026	R+4	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 0%

GOP 100%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Safe R

PVI

R+29 This is a safe Republican district.

Candidates

Democrat Nicole Gronli

Republican Marty Jackley

Seat context

Open seat. The incumbent is running for governor of South Dakota.