South Dakota's At-Large Congressional District

98%

GOP

2%Dem

Solid R

▲ R +1% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R +20.9·80% of simulations: R +33.3 to R +8.6

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +26.8

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D +0.1

National Environment

current political climate

D +5.4

Polls

recent state and district polling

D +0.4

Forecasted margin

R +20.9

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Polls

No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 2%

GOP 98%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Safe R

District lean

R+29 This is a safe Republican district.

Candidates

Democrat Dan Ahlers

Republican Marty Jackley

Seat context

Open seat. The incumbent is running for governor of South Dakota.