North Carolina Senate
71%
Dem
29%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +3.9·80% of simulations: R +7.1 to D +14.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +2.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +0.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.8
Forecasted margin
D +3.9
Polls
Polls (20)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 11, 2026 | D +4 | 759 | rv |
| The New York Times/Siena University | Jun 27, 2026 | D +7 | 601 | lv |
| YouGov | Jun 10, 2026 | D +14 | 905 | lv |
| Harper Polling | May 11, 2026 | D +11 | 600 | lv |
| Change Research | May 8, 2026 | D +7 | 957 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 71%
GOP 29%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This is a competitive state that leans slightly Republican (R+3).
- Candidates
- Roy Cooper (D) Michael Whatley (R)
- Seat Context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.