North Carolina Senate
95%
Dem
5%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+2.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D+1.7
National Environment
current political climate
D+6.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+3.9
Forecasted margin
D+9.7
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (31)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling Carolina Journal | Oct 20, 2026 | D+10 | LV |
| ActiVote | Oct 20, 2026 | D+14 | LV |
| SurveyUSA WRAL News, WSOC-TV | Oct 11, 2026 | D+14 | LV |
| Trafalgar GroupRepublican | Oct 10, 2026 | D+8 | LV |
| YouGov Elon University | Oct 8, 2026 | D+11 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 95%
GOP 5%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+3 This is a competitive state that leans slightly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Roy Cooper
Republican Michael Whatley
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.