North Carolina Senate
83%
Dem
17%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +5.9·80% of simulations: R +2.3 to D +14.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +2.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +2.7
Forecasted margin
D +5.9
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Polls
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Point University | Aug 12, 2026 | D +5 | 660 | lv |
| Harper Polling | Aug 10, 2026 | D +13 | 600 | lv |
| Change Research | Aug 6, 2026 | D +7 | 915 | lv |
| Change Research | Aug 1, 2026 | D +9 | 967 | rv |
| YouGov | Jul 31, 2026 | D +11 | 466 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 83%
GOP 17%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- State lean
- R+3 This is a competitive state that leans slightly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Roy Cooper
Republican Michael Whatley
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.