North Carolina's 10th Congressional District
98%
GOP
2%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +20.0·80% of simulations: R +31.9 to R +8.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +16.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +6.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.4
Forecasted margin
R +20.0
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 12, 2026 | R +15 | 400 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 2%
R 98%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+18).
- Candidates
- Ashley Bell (D) Pat Harrigan (R) (inc.)