North Carolina's 7th Congressional District
96%
GOP
4%Dem
▲ R+1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+12.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+11.9
National Environment
current political climate
D+8.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+0.8
Forecasted margin
R+14.4
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling Kimberly HardyDemocratic | Aug 20, 2026 | R+6 | RV |
| Public Policy Polling Kimberly HardyDemocratic | Aug 20, 2026 | R+5 | RV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 4%
GOP 96%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+13 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Kimberly Hardy
Republican David Rouzer (inc.)