North Carolina's 7th Congressional District
94%
GOP
6%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +13.7·80% of simulations: R +24.4 to R +3.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +12.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +10.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.7
Forecasted margin
R +13.7
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Aug 20, 2026 | R +6 | 517 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | Aug 20, 2026 | R +5 | 517 | rv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 6%
GOP 94%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+13 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Kimberly Hardy
Republican David Rouzer (inc.)