North Carolina's 6th Congressional District
91%
GOP
9%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +17.2·80% of simulations: R +33.4 to R +1.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +15.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +8.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
R +17.2
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 9%
GOP 91%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+17 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Cyril Jefferson
Republican Addison McDowell (inc.)