North Carolina's 1st Congressional District

77%

Dem

23%GOP

Lean D

▲ D+3% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D+3.980% of simulations: R+3.1 to D+10.8

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+9.7

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D+2.2

National Environment

current political climate

D+9.9

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+1.4

Forecasted margin

D+3.8

What Changes the Forecast

The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
co/efficient Laurie BuckhoutRepublican	Oct 8, 2026	R+1	LV
co/efficient Laurie BuckhoutRepublican	Oct 8, 2026	R+1	LV
Neighborhood Research Corporation	Oct 6, 2026	D+10	LV
GQR Don DavisDemocratic	Oct 4, 2026	D+8	LV
GBAO House Majority PACDemocratic	Sep 11, 2026	D+7	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 77%

GOP 23%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Tossup Inside Elections Tossup Sabato Lean D

PVI

R+11 This district leans strongly Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Don Davis (inc.)

Republican Laurie Buckhout