North Carolina's 1st Congressional District
55%
GOP
45%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +0.8·80% of simulations: R +9.9 to D +8.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +9.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.4
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +0.8
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQR | Jun 28, 2026 | D +4 | 500 | lv |
| co/efficient | Apr 29, 2026 | Even | 842 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 45%
GOP 55%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+11 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Don Davis (inc.)
Republican Laurie Buckhout