North Carolina's 1st Congressional District
68%
GOP
32%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +4.3·80% of simulations: R +16.9 to D +8.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +9.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +1.4
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.2
Forecasted margin
R +4.3
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | Apr 29, 2026 | Even | 842 | lv |
| GQR | Feb 2, 2026 | D +3 | 500 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 32%
R 68%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+11).
- Candidates
- Don Davis (D) (inc.) Laurie Buckhout (R)