North Carolina's 1st Congressional District

65%

GOP

35%Dem

Lean R

▲ D +2% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R +2.6·80% of simulations: R +13.2 to D +8.0

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +9.7

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D +1.2

National Environment

current political climate

D +5.0

Polls

recent state and district polling

D +0.9

Forecasted margin

R +2.6

Polls

Polls (4)

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
GQR	Jun 28, 2026	D +4	500	lv
co/efficient	Apr 29, 2026	Even	842	lv
GQR	Feb 2, 2026	R +4	500	lv
GQR	Feb 2, 2026	D +3	500	lv

What Changes the Forecast

The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time

Dem 35%

GOP 65%

Race Details