North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District
82%
GOP
18%Dem
▲ D+3% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+11.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+10.1
National Environment
current political climate
D+9.2
Polls
polling in similar districts
D+0.1
Forecasted margin
R+12.2
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 18%
GOP 82%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+12 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Raymond Smith Jr.
Republican Greg Murphy (inc.)