North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District
88%
GOP
12%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +15.3·80% of simulations: R +32.4 to D +1.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +11.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +11.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +15.3
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 12%
GOP 88%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+12 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Raymond Smith Jr.
Republican Gregory Murphy (inc.)