North Carolina's 14th Congressional District
97%
GOP
3%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +16.2·80% of simulations: R +26.3 to R +6.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +14.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +9.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
R +16.2
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 12, 2026 | R +8 | 400 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 3%
GOP 97%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+16 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Lakesha Womack
Republican Tim Moore (inc.)