North Carolina's 14th Congressional District
96%
GOP
4%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +17.3·80% of simulations: R +29.6 to R +5.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +14.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.6
Forecasted margin
R +17.3
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 12, 2026 | R +8 | 400 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 4%
R 96%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+16).
- Candidates
- Lakesha Womack (D) Tim Moore (R) (inc.)