North Carolina's 5th Congressional District
88%
GOP
12%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +15.3·80% of simulations: R +32.5 to D +1.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +16.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +6.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
R +15.3
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 12%
GOP 88%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+17 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Chuck Hubbard
Republican Virginia Foxx (inc.)